The IMF stated this in its World
Economic Outlook report, which was released at its headquarters in
Washington DC, United States.
In the report, the IMF maintained that the Nigerian economy would grow by 0.8 per cent this year, after emerging from recession.
The Economic Counsellor and Director of
Research, IMF, Maurice Obstfeld, spoke at a press briefing at the Fund’s
headquarters shortly after the release of the report.
Obstfeld said policy implementation and
market segmentation in a foreign exchange market that remained dependent
on the Central Bank of Nigeria’s interventions would have some impact
on the country in the future.
He stated, “Nigeria is expected to
emerge from the 2016 recession caused by low oil prices and the
disruption of oil production. Growth in 2017 is projected at 0.8 per
cent, owing to recovering oil production and ongoing strength in the
agricultural sector.
“However, concerns about policy
implementation, market segmentation in a foreign exchange market that
remains dependent on central bank interventions (despite initial steps
to liberalise the foreign exchange market), and banking system
fragilities are expected to weigh on activity in the medium term.”
The IMF director said growth prospects
across emerging market and developing economies remained heterogeneous,
with emerging Asian countries generally growing at a fast pace.
He, however, stated that many countries
in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East would struggle
with subpar performance.
According to him, economic growth in
sub-Saharan Africa is projected to reach 2.6 per cent in 2017 and 3.4
per cent in 2018, with sizeable differences across countries.
“Downside risks have risen because of
idiosyncratic factors in the region’s largest economies and delays in
implementing policy adjustments. Beyond the near term, growth is
expected to rise gradually, but barely above population growth, as large
consolidation needs to weigh on public spending,” Obstfeld added.
According to the WEO report, the world
growth is projected to increase from 3.2 per cent in 2016 to 3.6 per
cent this year and 3.7 per cent in 2018, an upward revision of 0.1
percentage point for both 2017 and 2018 relative to April.
Economic activity is projected to pick
up speed in all country groups except for the Middle East, and forecasts
of the strength of the outlook by region have changed only modestly.
Growth is forecast to increase strongly
in emerging market and developing economies, from an upwardly revised
4.3 per cent in 2016 to 4.6 per cent in 2017 and 4.9 per cent in 2018, a
0.1 percentage point increase for 2017 and 2018 relative to the April
forecast.
The report read in part, “The upward
revisions to the growth forecast primarily reflect stronger projected
activity in China and in emerging Europe for 2017 and 2018.
“As discussed earlier, although
commodity importers account for the lion’s share of growth in emerging
market and developing economies, the projected increase in growth from
2016 is driven primarily by stronger projected growth for commodity
exporters, most notably Brazil and Russia that experienced severe
macroeconomic strains during 2015-16.”
The IMF staff team led by Amine Mati had
visited Nigeria from July 20 to 31, 2017 to discuss recent economic and
financial developments, as well as update macroeconomic projections.
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