A new report from leading European and Chinese policy institutes sets out the opportunities — and challenges — facing the EU and China up to 2025. Here are five key points you need to know.
(1) While EU-China trade relations are well developed, this is not yet reflected in other areas of economic activity.
This includes trade in services, levels of foreign investment, cooperation on industrial and technological innovation, and financial market integration.
New breakthroughs in innovation also offer scope for closer cooperation as what European and Chinese companies build and design together becomes as important as what they sell to each other.
Facilitating people-to-people exchanges will also strengthen relations at a number of levels, and would benefit greatly from targeted, reciprocal, multi-year and multiple-entry visas. There is also particular potential — and need — to do more together on climate change.
(2) Current stocks of cumulative direct investments between the EU and China remain much lower than between the EU and the US.
There is, therefore, the scope for an enormous increase in investment in both directions. In 2015, the stock of EU foreign direct investment (FDI) in mainland China (not including Hong Kong) amounted to €168 billion, while the investment stock from mainland China in the EU was only €35 billion (€115 billion including Hong Kong).
This contrasts with the stock of EU FDI in the US of €2.6 trillion and the US FDI stock in the EU of €2.4 trillion. Developing connectivity — for example through China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — can further expand bilateral trade and economic cooperation. The EU has the potential to become the western ‘anchor’ of the BRI.
(3) Getting trade and investment agreements right will sustain relations.
Ongoing EU–China negotiations for an investment agreement — which should be concluded as soon as possible — can be used as a platform for addressing differences and facilitating further investment, focused on opening up each other’s service sector.
An EU–China investment agreement has the potential to spur further economic reform, including in the state-owned enterprises, and market liberalization in China. Subsequently, the two sides should open negotiations on establishing an EU–China free trade agreement (FTA).
4) The EU and China should work together to strengthen mechanisms of good global governance.
Both benefit from the multilateral trade system, and they are not direct competitors on security issues. With their combined economic weight they can do much to buttress the stability of the multilateral global order.
To achieve this, the EU and China should agree on approaches bilaterally, as well as work through existing institutions such as the WTO and the G20.
However, EU–China cooperation should not disadvantage the US, given its paramount importance to both the EU and China as well as to the global economy.
Moreover, the benefits of a closer EU–China relationship are likely to be enhanced if the EU27 and the UK are able to agree on a sensible Brexit that ensures a continued close economic relationship between them.
(5) But strengthening relations will not be easy.
There are significant differences between the political and economic systems of the EU and China, and European and Chinese economic models are unlikely to converge in the foreseeable future.
It is incumbent upon governments and businesses on both sides to find ways to overcome current obstacles and to design realistic and pragmatic ways to build on their existing relations.
EU and Chinese leaders should build on the existing EU–China 2020 Strategic Agenda for Cooperation, re-stating their common interests in the new global context,
while also recognizing more candidly their differences, and prioritizing progress where it is achievable and where relations are currently under-developed.
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